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随着我国经济进入三期叠加的新常态,多年来产业盲目扩能的弊端充分暴露出来,前期投资所期望的收益大打折扣。基于这一严峻现实,本文旨在从实证与理论上研究探讨产能过剩对投资效率的影响。本文首先以工业为研究对象,通过建立VAR模型,观察包括产能利用率在内的各因素对投资效率的影响及程度。其次,通过对钢铁行业和鞍钢的案例分析,展示产能过剩对行业和微观企业投资效率的影响。再次,从经济学理论上解释了产能过剩对投资效率的作用,并简要分析了产能过剩产生的基本原因。最后,对几种化解产能过剩措施对投资效率影响进行了探讨,在此基础上提出了破解产能过剩、促进投资效率提升的具体建议。
As China’s economy enters the new normal of the three phase superposition, the drawbacks of blind expansion of the industry have been fully exposed over the years, and the expected return on investment in the previous period has been greatly reduced. Based on this grim reality, this paper aims to explore the impact of overcapacity on investment efficiency from both empirical and theoretical perspectives. In this paper, we first take industry as the research object, and through the establishment of VAR model, we observe the influence and degree of various factors including capacity utilization rate on investment efficiency. Second, through case studies of the steel industry and Ansteel, we show the impact of overcapacity on the investment efficiency of the industry and micro-enterprises. Thirdly, from the economic theory, this paper explains the function of overcapacity on investment efficiency and briefly analyzes the basic causes of overcapacity. Finally, several kinds of measures to mitigate the impact of overcapacity on investment efficiency are discussed, on this basis, put forward specific suggestions to crack overcapacity and promote investment efficiency.