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看到很多人都把地价趋势作为房价是否上涨的主要论证点,而其实,地价的上涨幅度确实预示着当时地产商对于区域的认知预期,但实际上它绝对不是,也不应该是衡量区域未来房产价格走势的标杆!面粉贵过面包并不能说明以后面包就涨价!它只说明面粉的产量下降,或是买面粉的人多了!放到实际市场中,只能说明预期面粉涨价,或是面包涨价的人多了!但是市场在短期往往是非理性的,对于市场来说最好的判断手段依然是供需而不是成本!表一是2004年至2013年的全国住宅销售量和价格的同比增幅趋势,可以看出,从2005年起至2010年,销售量和价格的同比增幅趋势呈明显的同向走势,且趋势非常一致,销售量同比增幅的波动明显大于价格同比增幅,这就是前些年大家意识到的“房价越涨越买,越跌越没人买”的体现。有过投资经验的朋友应该已经能看出来了,这种趋势是非常明显的投机市场趋势,市场情绪随着价格的波动被放大,被放大的市场情绪反过来又影响价格趋势,直至某个新的事件或信息出现,市场出现反转。这也就体现了在地产的黄金十年中,住宅市场(即使是全国这么大的市场)基本就是一个投机市场,真正的实际需求者也被迫卷入这个明显的投机
Seeing that many people regard the land price trend as the main argument for whether housing prices have risen or not, in fact, the rate of increase in land prices does indicate the real estate business community’s expectations of the area at that time. In fact, it is absolutely not and should not be a measure of the area Flour over the bread does not explain the price of bread after it! It only shows the decline in the production of flour, or buy more flour! Put into the actual market, only shows the expected price of flour , Or the price of bread, more people! But the market is often irrational in the short term, the market for the best means of judgment is still supply and demand rather than cost! Table I is the national residential sales from 2004 to 2013 and The trend of year-on-year price increase shows that the sales volume and price year-on-year increase trend are obviously in the same direction from 2005 to 2010, and the trends are very consistent. The year-on-year volume increase of sales volume is obviously larger than that of the same period of last year, This is what we realized a few years ago, “the more room to buy the more prices, the more people fall more than buying” reflects the embodiment. A friend who has experience in investing should already be able to see this trend is very obvious speculative market trends, market sentiment is amplified with price fluctuations, the market sentiment is amplified and in turn affect the price trend until a new The event or information appears, the market reversed. This also shows that in the golden decade of real estate, the housing market (even the large market in China) is basically a speculative market, and the real demanders of real demand are forced into this obvious speculation