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本文打破传统的地区行政划分限制,基于中国29个省市1995-2008年人均能源消费数据,将其划分为高、中、低三类需求区,分别建立面板数据模型(PanelData),分析不同地区能源需求的影响因素及影响程度。结果表明:各地区能源需求的主要影响因素各不相同,而各因素对三类地区能源需求影响差异明显。经济增长与各区域能源需求呈正相关,影响较为显著;人口增长对能源消费影响显著,呈正向关系;能源消费结构与各区域能源需求之间呈正相关关系;第二产业对能源需求影响呈明显正向关系;短期内能源价格对能源消费增长的抑制作用有限。
Based on the per capita energy consumption data of 29 provinces and cities in China from 1995 to 2008, this paper divides them into high, medium and low demand areas, and establishes panel data model (PanelData) respectively to analyze different regions Influencing factors of energy demand and degree of influence. The results show that the main influencing factors of energy demand vary from region to region, and the impact of each factor on the energy demand of the three types of regions is obviously different. There is a positive correlation between economic growth and energy demand in all regions, and the impact is more significant. Population growth has a significant and positive impact on energy consumption. There is a positive correlation between energy consumption structure and energy demand in various regions. The secondary industry has obvious positive impact on energy demand To the relationship; short-term energy prices on the growth of energy consumption is limited.