论文部分内容阅读
GDP增速6.7%,对于悲观者来讲是惊喜,对于乐观者而言是意外。首季GDP增速6.7%。这个数字高于6.5%,低于6.9%。因此,对于悲观者来讲,这是惊喜,对于乐观者而言,这是意外。6.5%是2016年中央政府的下限,而6.9%则是2015年全年GDP的增速。经济在减速,这是不争的事实,但是积极因素在滋长,这也是客观的现象,现在不太清楚的是,积极因素的增长有多长的持续性,最终能完成经济探底那个L型的拐点,尽管现在已经有人在预测U字型或W字型,作为短期的反复完全有可能,但是作为一个长级别的周期显然可以忽略不计。
GDP growth of 6.7%, for the pessimist in terms of surprise, surprises for the optimist. First quarter GDP growth rate of 6.7%. This figure is higher than 6.5%, lower than 6.9%. So for pessimists this is a surprise, and for the optimist it is an accident. 6.5% is the lower limit of the central government in 2016, while 6.9% is the growth of 2015 full-year GDP. It is an indisputable fact that the economy is decelerating. However, the positive factors are also growing. This is also an objective phenomenon. What is not clear now is how long the positive factors have increased and eventually the economic bottom-line will be completed. Inflection point, although some people now predict the U-shaped or W-shaped, as a short-term repetition is entirely possible, but as a long-term cycle is obviously negligible.