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本文首先阐明预测性情报调研工作的重要性,然后指出用未来学中的未来预测技术进行预测性情报调研的必要性。未来学是一门新兴的学科,近些年发展出许多科学的预测技术,很值得情报工作借鉴。本文对几种重要的有代表性的未来预测技术作了简单介绍和比较,用以说明未来预测技术虽然有很多优点,但并非完全适合于情报调研工作,因为情报工作也有自己的特点。为使预测技术在情报调研中得到广泛应用,必须进行一些改造。最后提出进行改造的具体办法。
This paper begins with clarifying the importance of predictive intelligence research and then points out the need for predictive intelligence research using futuristic forecasting techniques. Futurology is an emerging discipline. In recent years, many scientific forecasting techniques have developed and it is worth learning from intelligence work. In this paper, we briefly introduce and compare several important and representative forecasting techniques to illustrate that although forecasting techniques have many advantages, they are not entirely suitable for intelligence research because they also have their own characteristics. In order to make the prediction technology widely used in intelligence research, some transformations must be carried out. Finally, the specific ways to carry out the transformation.