三峡库区宜昌段1997―2012年鼠密度灰色模型构建及预测

• 作 者: 张皓 徐勇 潘会明 贺圆圆 赵鑫 崔雪峰 王大军 吴开琼 梅立志 杜海国 吴娟娟 黄卫东 鲁亮 郭玉红 官旭华 燕虹 杨小兵
• 机 构: 三峡大学公共卫生研究中心(宜昌市疾病预防控制中心),中国疾病预防控制中心现场流行病学培训项目,武汉大学公共卫生学院,兴山县疾病预防控制中心,秭归县疾病预防控制中心,夷陵区疾病预防控制中心,中国疾病预防
• 出 处: 海峡预防医学杂志
• 发表日期: 2013年05期
• 关键词: 鼠密度 媒介传染病 三峡库区 灰色模型 建阳坪乡 监测点 宜昌站 预测分析 轻微下降 流行趋势

目的探讨三峡库区宜昌段鼠密度变化规律。方法对三峡库区宜昌段1997―2012年室内外鼠密度,构建灰色模型GM(1,1),并进行预测分析。结果预测2013―2014年监测点鼠密度呈逐年轻微下降趋势,拟合模型结果满意,室内鼠密度分别为1.55%、1.45%;室外鼠密度分别为1.30%、1.29%。结论三峡库区宜昌段随着生态环境的改变,鼠密度和鼠类构成也发生相应变化,要加强鼠密度监测,为防制媒介传染病的发生提供参考。

Objective To investigate the variation of rat density in Yichang section of Three Gorges Reservoir Area. Methods The gray model GM (1,1) was constructed for the indoor and outdoor mouse densities in Yichang of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region from 1997 to 2012, and the prediction was analyzed. Results It was predicted that the density of rats in monitoring points decreased slightly from 2013 to 2014, the results of fitting model were satisfactory. The indoor rat density was 1.55% and 1.45% respectively. The outdoor rat density was 1.30% and 1.29% respectively. Conclusion With the changes of ecological environment in Yichang section of Three Gorges Reservoir Area, the density of rodents and the composition of rodents also changed correspondingly. To monitor the density of rodents, it may provide a reference for the prevention of vector-borne diseases.