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中国投资具有政策性、外生性、周期性的特点。投资通过金融部门融资的情况下,投资完全可以独立消费而增长,并通过费雪方程式效应和金融资产价值重估效应,对消费产生影响。在包括金融部门的Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans模型框架内,投资通过上述两种效应影响消费的过渡动态具有投资与消费同步变动的性质,从而为我国投资消费同步变动之谜提供了一个理论解释。通过基于误差修正的Granger因果检验、贝叶斯VAR脉冲响应函数等计量方法,发现投资是一个外生变量,投资影响消费的上述两个效应是真实存在的。持续的投资高增长导致投资消费结构失衡,并倒逼银行信用创造和央行扩大货币供给,降低央行货币政策独立性。
China’s investment has the characteristics of policy, exogenous and cyclical. Investment through the financing of the financial sector, the investment can grow independently and consumption, and through the Fisher equation effect and the revaluation of financial assets effect, the impact on consumption. In the framework of the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model, which includes the financial sector, the transitional dynamics that affect the consumption through the above two effects of investment have the property of simultaneous changes in investment and consumption, and thus provide a theoretical explanation for the mystery of the simultaneous changes in investment and consumption in China. Through the Granger causality test based on error correction and Bayesian VAR impulse response function, we find that investment is an exogenous variable. The above two effects of investment on consumption are real. Sustained high investment growth led to an imbalance in the structure of investment and consumption, which forced the creation of bank credit and the central bank to expand the money supply and reduce the central bank’s monetary independence.