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运用灰色关联预测方法和多元线性回归分析方法等方法,对上海市3区2县少年儿童住院医疗保险费用进行了预测和相关因素分析。预测结果表明,未来上海市少年儿童住院医疗保险利用水平、次均费用、次均给付和总医疗费用均呈上升趋势。多元线性回归相关因素分析结果表明,少年儿童住院医疗费用最重要的内部相关因素是药费,其次是检查费和手术费;少年儿童住院医疗费用外部相关因素是就诊地点、医院等级、季节、家长享受医疗保健制度类型、手术与否、患者年龄等。
Using gray correlation forecasting method and multivariate linear regression analysis, the hospitalization insurance cost of children and adolescents in 3 districts and 2 counties in Shanghai was predicted and related factors were analyzed. The forecast results show that in the future, the utilization level, the average cost, the average payment and the total medical expenses of hospitalization insurance for children and adolescents in Shanghai show an upward trend. Multivariate linear regression analysis of relevant factors showed that the most important internal factors related to hospitalization expenses for children and adolescents were medical expenses, followed by inspection fees and surgery costs. Exogenous factors related to hospitalization expenses for children and adolescents were the place of treatment, hospital grade, season, parents Enjoy the type of health care system, surgery or not, patient age and so on.