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中美之间的经济和股市将越发不同步。中国不会成为美国政策外溢的殉葬品,如果中国自身的宏观和改革政策应对得当的话。让我们回顾20年前的美国。80年代的美国经济,经历了艰难的保罗·沃尔克时期:1984~1988年,短短五年,美国就从全球最大的债权国沦落为全球最大的债务国。其中最大的问题,是沃尔克将美国国债利率推得太高,导致债务积累速度太快,股、债的状况都非常黯淡。拉美经济是美国经济得以摆脱此轮滞胀的牺牲品——其引发了拉美的债务危机。
The economy and the stock market between China and the United States will become increasingly unsynchronized. China will not become a sacrificial object of U.S. policy spillover if China’s own macroeconomic and reform policies properly address it. Let us recall the United States 20 years ago. In the 1980s, the U.S. economy experienced a difficult period of Paul Volcker. From 1984 to 1988, in just five years, the United States reduced itself from the world’s largest creditor nation to the largest debtor nation in the world. One of the biggest problems is that Volcker pushed the interest rate of the U.S. government bonds too high, causing the debt to accumulate too fast and the situation of stocks and debts are very bleak. The Latin American economy is the victim of the U.S. economy getting rid of this round of stagflation - which triggered the debt crisis in Latin America.