论文部分内容阅读
2009年以来,整个世界的焦点都集中在主权债务危机。其实,在美、欧、日三大经济体之中,日本的债务负担最为沉重。笔者认为,从长期来看,日本的债务问题必将恶化。尤其是最近两三年,日本经济已经出现了一些转折性的变化。在未来数年之内,日本爆发债务危机的概率将显著提高。按照一般的逻辑,随着债务规模的扩大,为了吸引更多的投资者,政府将不得不提高债券的收益率。本次欧债危机中希腊、葡萄牙等国收益率迅速攀升就是典型案例。但是,2000年以来,虽然日本政府债务水平一直在升高,政府财政赤字状况也没有改善迹象。其10年期国债收益率一直处于2%以下,甚至还在不断下降。这一奇特的现象,被学术界称为“日本债务之谜”。
Since 2009, the entire world has focused on sovereign debt crises. In fact, among the three major economies in the United States, Europe and Japan, Japan has the heaviest debt burden. In the author’s opinion, in the long run, Japan’s debt problem will surely worsen. In particular, the last two to three years have witnessed some turning point in Japan’s economy. In the next few years, the probability of a debt crisis in Japan will rise significantly. As a general rule, with the expansion of the debt scale, in order to attract more investors, the government will have to raise the bond’s yield. The debt crisis in Europe, Greece, Portugal and other countries the rapid rise in the rate of return is a typical case. However, since 2000, although the Japanese government debt level has been rising, the state of government deficit has not improved yet. Its 10-year bond yields have been below 2%, and are even declining. This peculiar phenomenon has been called “the mystery of Japan’s debt” by academia.