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目的预测2013—2014年昆山市手足口病疫情变化趋势,为手足口病防控提供科学依据。方法采用2008—2012年昆山市手足口病的发病率作为原始数据,利用GM灰色模型,建立数学模型,预测手足口病发病趋势。结果基于2008—2012年昆山市手足口病发病率,运用模型计算出2012—2014年手足口病发病率为49.54/10万、27.21/10万、22.28/10万,实际2012年手足口病的发病率为55.88/10万,相对误差的绝对值为11.34%,拟合预测精度为89.17%。结论通过手足口病发病率预测模型,推算出的我市手足口病发病率的实际值和预测值基本吻合,拟合较好。
Objective To predict the trend of HFMD in Kunshan City during 2013-2014 and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The incidence of HFMD in Kunshan City from 2008 to 2012 was taken as the original data. The GM gray model was used to establish the mathematical model to predict the incidence of HFMD. Results Based on the incidence of HFMD in Kunshan City from 2008 to 2012, the incidence of HFMD in 2012-2014 was calculated as 49.54 / 100000, 27.21 / 100000 and 22.28 / 100000 respectively. The actual incidence of HFMD in 2012-2014 The incidence was 55.88 / 100 000, the relative error was 11.34%, and the accuracy of fitting prediction was 89.17%. Conclusion According to the prediction model of hand-foot-mouth disease incidence, the actual and predicted values of the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in our city are in good agreement with each other and the fitting is good.