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本文将芝麻历史产量分解为趋势产量与气象产量两个分量,并将气象产量变换为气象产量指数,通过多重非线性回归模拟,建立了气象产量指数及产量模式,从而揭示芝麻产量动态趋势及年际变化原因。其结果,可用于鉴定芝麻生育期间的农业气候条件,为芝麻趋利避害与高产稳产提供依据,并可用于产量的预测预报。 本文采用安徽淮北平原阜阳县历年芝麻单产及相应年份的气象资料。五十年代,由于春、夏芝麻并行,六十年代起以夏芝麻为主,故五十年代产量资料舍去不用。现将研究结果分述如下:
In this paper, the historical production of sesame is decomposed into two components of trend yield and meteorological yield, and the meteorological output is transformed into meteorological output index. Through multiple nonlinear regression modeling, the meteorological output index and yield pattern are established, which reveals the trend of sesame yield and year The reason for the change. The results can be used to identify agro-climatic conditions during sesame growth and provide the basis for sesame profit reduction and high yield and stability, and can be used for forecasting yield. In this paper, Anhui Huaibei Plain calendar year sesame yields and corresponding years of meteorological data. In the fifties, due to the spring and summer sesame in parallel, summer sesame dominated in the 1960s, so the yield data in the 1950s were discarded. Now the research results are as follows: