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随着我国渔业生产的发展,渔业用冰需求量逐渐增大,而我国目前尚无官方公布的渔业用冰需求量统计数据,制冰企业无法根据市场需求调节生产规模;制冰企业对用冰消费市场结构和发展趋势不掌握,直接造成制冰企业生产存在盲目性。通过建立经典的线性回归模型,估算出1995—2016年渔业用冰量,并与全国水产冷库制冰量趋势线相拟合,得出两者趋势一致的结论。表明估算得到的结果相对客观准确,符合我国渔业用冰的实际情况。通过异方差检验、平稳性检验、协整检验等一系列计量检验,表明回归模型不存在异方差,变量之间存在稳定及长期均衡关系,因而估算结果具有严格的统计意义。从总体趋势上看,我国的渔业用冰量不断增长,说明我国渔业生产规模正呈现不断扩大的趋势。进一步研究表明:我国涉渔第一产业预估用冰量占比较大,为40.74%,但年均增长率为3.04%;涉渔第二产业预估用冰量在三个产业中占比最小,为12.17%,但年均涨幅最高,达到7.99%;涉渔第三产业预估用冰量占比最高,为47.09%,且年均增长率为4.73%。预计到2030年,渔业总用冰量达到1 927万吨。
With the development of fishery production in our country, the demand for ice fishery is gradually increasing. However, there is no official statistical data on the demand for ice fishery in our country, and the ice makers can not adjust the scale of production according to market demand. Consumer market structure and development trends do not grasp, as a direct result of the existence of ice making business blindness. Through the establishment of a classic linear regression model, the amount of ice used in fisheries was estimated from 1995 to 2016 and fitted with the trend line of the ice making capacity of the national aquaculture refrigerator, and the conclusion was drawn that the trend of the two is consistent. Indicating that the estimated results are relatively objective and accurate, in line with China’s actual use of ice in fisheries. Through a series of measurement tests such as heteroscedasticity test, stationarity test and co-integration test, it shows that there is no heteroscedasticity in the regression model, and there exists a stable and long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables. Therefore, the estimation results have strict statistical significance. From the overall trend, China’s fisheries use ice growing, indicating that China’s fishery production scale is showing a growing trend. Further studies show that the estimated amount of ice used in fishery primary industry accounts for 40.74% of the total, but the average annual growth rate is 3.04%. The estimated amount of ice used in fishery secondary industry accounts for the smallest proportion of the three industries , 12.17%, but the highest average annual increase, reaching 7.99%; fishery tertiary industry estimated ice consumption accounted for the highest proportion of 47.09%, and the average annual growth rate of 4.73%. It is estimated that the total amount of ice used in fisheries will reach 19.7 million tons by 2030.