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去年下半年以来,银行的实际运作已实施了较紧的信贷政策。银行各项贷款增速逐年下降,1992年为20.2％,今年上半年才17.1％,它与相对应的工业增长速度之比(贷款弹性)1992年为0.75,今年上半年为0.68,而1988年四季度紧缩时却是0.93。再考虑生产资料价格快速上涨的因素,目前实际的紧缩力度已经大大超过了1988年四季度的水平。但是工业增长速度不仅没有下降,相反呈现出加速增长的势头,今年上半年工业增长率达25.1％,6月份已超过30％,预期的信贷紧缩效应并未出现。对于这种“紧而不缩”现象,目前主要有两种解释:其一,信贷政策发挥效用需要一
Since the second half of last year, the bank’s actual operation has implemented a tighter credit policy. The growth rate of various loans of banks dropped year by year from 20.2% in 1992 to only 17.1% in the first half of this year. The ratio of loan growth to corresponding industrial growth (loan elasticity) was 0.75 in 1992 and 0.68 in the first half of this year, while in 1988 It was 0.93 when the fourth quarter tightened. Considering again the factors of the rapidly rising prices of the means of production, the current actual tightening efforts have greatly exceeded the level of the fourth quarter of 1988. However, the industrial growth rate not only did not decline, but on the contrary, it showed the momentum of accelerated growth. In the first half of this year, the industrial growth rate reached 25.1% and exceeded 30% in June. The expected credit crunch has not appeared. At present, there are mainly two explanations for this phenomenon of “tight but not shrinkage.” First, credit policy needs to be effective