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技术创新是促进城市低碳经济发展的重要因素,研究城市技术创新与低碳经济增长之间的经验关系,并给出相应的理论解释和管理措施,具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。该研究将灰关联分析法引入VAR模型中,对南京市1993~2013年技术创新发展与低碳经济增长的相关数据进行计算分析,研究该市技术创新发展与低碳经济增长之间的长期均衡关系、动态作用机制。为进一步探讨技术创新与低碳经济的效应关系,在反弹效应分析模型的基础上,对南京市技术创新发展与低碳经济增长反弹效应进行分析。结果表明,在长期均衡状态下,对低碳经济的影响程度从大至小的变量分别是技术创新人才投入、技术创新资金投入、与技术创新产出。此外,技术创新人才投入对低碳经济增长贡献率也最大。鉴于技术创新易产生反弹效应,在如今的低碳经济发展中,我们应发展生态创新,重视管理创新与技术创新并重。
Technological innovation is an important factor in promoting the development of urban low-carbon economy. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the empirical relationship between urban technological innovation and the growth of low-carbon economy and to provide corresponding theoretical explanations and management measures. This study introduces the gray relational analysis into the VAR model to calculate and analyze the relative data of technological innovation development and low-carbon economic growth in Nanjing from 1993 to 2013, and to study the long-term equilibrium between the city’s technological innovation and low-carbon economic growth Relationship, dynamic mechanism. In order to further explore the effect of technological innovation and low-carbon economy, based on the rebound effect analysis model, this paper analyzes the rebound effect of technological innovation and low-carbon economy growth in Nanjing. The results show that under the condition of long-term equilibrium, the variables influencing the low-carbon economy from big to small are investment of technological innovation, investment of technological innovation and output of technological innovation. In addition, the contribution of technological innovation personnel to the growth of low-carbon economy also contributed the most. In view of the easy rebound effect of technological innovation, in today’s low-carbon economic development, we should develop ecological innovation and attach equal importance to management innovation and technological innovation.