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从城市各种规划对房地产市场参与主体决策行为的影响分析入手,构建了房地产价格的预期因素体系,通过对2000-2011年中国31个地区的实证研究,建立了包含先行因素、现实因素和预期因素的城市房地产预期评估模型。通过分析得出以下结论:建材价格对商品住宅价格具有三年的滞后正影响;居民收入和城镇化率对当期的商品住宅价格具有正影响,老年人口抚养比和地区经济水平对当期的商品住宅价格具有负影响,少年人口抚养比对商品住宅价格的影响不显著;收入增长预期、人口数量增长预期和森林覆盖率改善预期对商品住宅价格都具有提前的正影响,但提前期各不相同,分别为一年、三年和五年,城镇化发展预期对商品住宅价格具有提前五年的负影响,经济发展预期对商品住宅价格的影响不显著。
Starting with the analysis of the impact of urban planning on the decision-making behavior of real estate market participants, this paper constructs the expected factor system of real estate prices. By empirical research on 31 regions in China from 2000 to 2011, this paper establishes a set of factors that include first factor, real factor and expectation Factors of Urban Real Estate Expected Evaluation Model. Through the analysis, we can draw the following conclusions: The price of building materials has a three-year lag effect on commodity housing prices; the income and urbanization rate have a positive impact on the current commodity housing prices; the dependency ratio of the elderly population and the regional economic level on the current commodity housing The price has a negative impact, and the effect of the population dependency ratio on the commodity housing price is insignificant; the expectation of income growth, population growth expectation and expected improvement of forest coverage have a positive positive impact on commodity housing prices, but the lead times are different, Respectively, one year, three years and five years. Urbanization is expected to have a negative impact on the prices of commercial residential buildings five years ahead of schedule. The expected impact of economic development on the prices of commercial residential buildings is insignificant.