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综合、系统地总结了前人在边坡工程及滑坡预测预报领域的研究成果。在此基础上，运用非线性理论的相关理论和方法，对岩土力学参数的置信度、边坡演化的非线性机制、边坡的分岔过程与混沌特征、滑坡预测和预报方法进行了较为系统的研究和探讨。 推导了反映岩土体力学参数的不确定性的数字特征公式，建立了可靠性检验模型。边坡系统是一个具有复杂结构和功能的非线性开放系统，非线性性质是其基本属性。为研究这一性质，归纳了研究边坡工程非线性特征的系统范式原则，认为边坡系统从形式、发展到破坏的演化过程遵循一定的规律，如发展的动力、演化的道路及演化的历经状态等符合原则。 边坡在演化过程中，分岔是其发展道路之一，运用分岔理论研究边坡演化的非线性机制可反映出这一过程。建立了边坡演化的分岔模型，并运用线性稳定性分析、数值模拟方法对边坡稳定性、吸引子特征及演化趋势进行了理论研究。结果表明：处于非线性演化状态的边坡在外界小扰动作用下，会发生状态质变，从而为解释边坡变形机制提供了理论依据。 引入有关理论，提出了滑坡预测预报的非线性时间序列方法，建立了滑坡失稳时间的协同一分岔模型，并把混沌理论与神经网络方法结合起来对边坡稳定性进行评价。最后，以新滩滑坡、Ｖａｊ
Comprehensively and systematically summarizes the research results of predecessors in the field of slope engineering and landslide forecasting and forecasting. On this basis, using the theory and method of nonlinear theory, the reliability of rock mechanics parameters, the nonlinear mechanism of slope evolution, the bifurcation and chaos characteristics of slope, landslide prediction and forecasting methods are compared System research and discussion. The numerical characteristic formula reflecting the uncertainty of rock mechanics parameters is derived and the reliability test model is established. The slope system is a nonlinear open system with complex structure and function. The nonlinear nature is its basic attribute. To study this property, the systematic paradigm principle of nonlinear characteristics of slope engineering is summarized. It is considered that the evolution of slope system from form to development to destruction follows certain rules, such as the driving force of development, the path of evolution and the evolution Status and other principles. Bifurcation is one of its developmental paths during the evolution of slope. The nonlinear mechanism of bifurcation theory to study the evolution of slope can reflect this process. The bifurcation model of slope evolution was established, and the stability of the slope, the characteristics of the attractor and the evolution trend were theoretically studied by means of linear stability analysis and numerical simulation. The results show that under the condition of small external disturbances, the slope in the nonlinear evolution state will undergo a qualitative change of state, which provides a theoretical basis for explaining the deformation mechanism of the slope. The relevant theory is introduced and a nonlinear time series method of landslide prediction and forecast is proposed. A co-bifurcation model of landslide time is established. The stability of the slope is evaluated by combining the chaos theory with the neural network method. Finally, take the Xintan landslide, Vaj