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文章通过分析2008~2017年大型商业银行不良贷款季度余额的变化趋势,运用ARIMA模型进行拟合。同时研究外部因素对大型商业银行不良贷款增加趋势的干预和控制作用,引入干预分析模型,最后对大型商业银行不良贷款进行了短期的预测。
By analyzing the trend of quarterly balance of non-performing loans of large commercial banks from 2008 to 2017, the article uses the ARIMA model to fit. At the same time, it also studies the intervention and control of external factors on the increasing trend of non-performing loans of large commercial banks, introduces the intervention analysis model, and finally makes a short-term forecast on the non-performing loans of large commercial banks.