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文章论述低碳经济与碳排放的内涵及意义,阐明影响碳排放的主要因素,进而以徐州市为例,在分析全市碳排放主要影响因素的基础上,着重利用时间序列曲线趋势外推和灰色关联分析两个经济预测模型探讨徐州市碳减排压力。预测结果表明:两个经济模型预测结论基本相符。从长期来看,至2020年,徐州市碳减排压力较小,但由于工业结构偏重、工业能耗弹性系数波动性大、能源结构单一等原因,徐州市面临短期及中期碳排放压力。
This paper discusses the connotation and significance of low-carbon economy and carbon emissions, clarifies the main factors that affect carbon emissions, and then takes Xuzhou as an example. Based on the analysis of the main factors affecting carbon emissions in the city, the paper focuses on the use of time series curve trend extrapolation and gray Correlate and analyze two economic forecast models to discuss the pressure of carbon emission reduction in Xuzhou. The forecast results show that the two economic models predict the same. In the long term, Xuzhou will have less pressure on carbon emission reduction by 2020, but Xuzhou will face short-term and medium-term carbon emission pressures due to its heavy industrial structure, large fluctuations in the elasticity of industrial energy consumption and single energy structure.