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李嘉图等价定理揭示了国债与征税之间的关系。李嘉图等价定理如果成立,财政政策将会是无效的。日本的国债数额庞大,宏观调控的财政手段空间日益狭小,已经成为日本经济的一大隐患。本文通过运用动态分布滞后模型,对1990年至2013年日本的宏观经济数据进行实证分析,发现政府支出对私人消费有促进作用,而国债发行额对私人消费则有抑制作用。在目前日本庞大的国债赤字情况下,继续通过发行国债的办法刺激经济,最终将导致财政政策失效。
Ricardian equivalence theorem reveals the relationship between national debt and taxation. Ricardian equivalence theorem If established, the fiscal policy will be invalid. The large amount of Japanese government bonds and the ever-narrowing of the macro-control fiscal instruments have become a big hurdle for Japan’s economy. By using the dynamic distribution lag model, this paper empirically analyzes the macroeconomic data of Japan from 1990 to 2013 and finds that government spending has a positive effect on private consumption while the issuance of government bonds has an inhibitory effect on private consumption. Under the current huge Japanese government debt deficit, continuing to stimulate the economy through the issuance of treasury bonds will eventually lead to the failure of fiscal policies.