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我国玉米市场已经由供给不足预期转变为国产玉米入库积压严重,亟待开展供给侧结构性改革的局面。玉米价格之所以未能成为清晰反映市场供求关系的晴雨表,与其背后信号传递的局限性存在着重要关联。本研究以玉米产业链为研究视角,基于国内外玉米、尿素、生猪及生物乙醇等月度价格数据,运用三区间门限误差修正模型对玉米产业链间价格联系进行实证分析。结果表明:长期内,国内外玉米产业链价格间均存在均衡关系;短期内,国内外玉米、国内玉米和生猪、国际玉米和生物乙醇价格间均存在线性关系,而国内外玉米和尿素价格间则分别存在门限非线性关系。且在门限非线性调整关系中,国内玉米和尿素间表现为正向非对称性,而国际玉米和尿素间则表现为负向非对称性。因此,在推进玉米市场化改革和产业政策调整时,应充分考虑我国玉米产业链上价格传递的非对称性特征,重点关注正向偏离的调整机制。
China’s corn market has been changed from insufficient supply to the backlog of domestic corn backlog seriously, and it is urgent to carry out supply-side structural reform. The reason why corn prices have failed to become a barometer that clearly reflects the market supply and demand has an important connection with the limitations of signal transmission behind them. Based on the monthly price data of corn, urea, live pigs and bioethanol at home and abroad, this study uses the three-zone threshold error correction model to make an empirical analysis of the price linkages among maize industry chains. The results show that in the long run, there is a balanced relationship between the domestic and international corn industry chain prices. In the short term, there is a linear relationship between domestic and international corn, domestic corn and live pigs, international corn and bioethanol prices. However, There is a threshold nonlinear relationship. In the non-linear adjustment of threshold, domestic maize and urea showed positive asymmetry, but international maize and urea showed negative asymmetry. Therefore, when promoting the market-oriented reform of maize and the adjustment of industrial policies, we should give full consideration to the asymmetric character of price transmission in the corn industry chain of our country and focus on the adjusting mechanism of positive deviation.