论文部分内容阅读
本文提出了多输入—单输出线性扰动模型及其识别方法,并在中国长江上的两个不同的河段与一个支流流域上进行了验证。为了作比较,对现今常用的简单线性模型也作了类似的计算。结果表明,这两类模型在河道汇流演算中都能给出很高的精度。对输入、输出关系复杂的大流域,线性扰动模型能够作出比简单线性模型好得多的预报。最后,基于对模型预报误差的分析,提出了实时预报校正的手段。
In this paper, a multi-input-single-output linear perturbation model and its identification method are proposed and validated on two different river sections and one tributary basin on the Yangtze River in China. For comparison, similar calculations have been made for the simple linear models commonly used today. The results show that both models can give high precision in the calculation of confluence of rivers. For large basins with complex input and output relations, the linear perturbation model can make a much better prediction than the simple linear model. Finally, based on the analysis of model prediction error, a method of real-time prediction and correction is proposed.