小白菜花叶病时间序列分析预测法

• 作 者: 王振中 林孔勋 范怀忠
• 机 构: 华南农业大学植物保护系,华南农业大学植物保护系,华南农业大学植物保护系,
• 出 处: 植物保护学报
• 发表日期: 1990年03期
• 关键词: 白菜花叶病 预测法 病害流行 病害预测 时间序列分析 序列相关性 内在规律性 病害 病害发展 组配

从病害流行的内在规律性、影响病害流行的气象因子的序列相关性以及病害流行状态和速率等方面,讨论了病害流行时间序列分析预测法的可行性。利用生长模型预测法预测小白菜花叶病普遍率的增长,在753次应用性检验中平均准确度为95％。组配了小白菜花叶病普遍率自回归预测方程25道,440例应用性检验的平均准确度为88％。

From the inherent regularity of disease epidemic, the sequence correlation of the meteorological factors influencing the disease epidemic and the epidemic state and rate of the disease, the feasibility of the epidemic time series analysis and forecast method was discussed. The prediction of growth of the prevalence of cabbage mosaic disease by using the growth model prediction method showed an average accuracy of 95% in 753 applicational tests. The results showed that the average rate of self-regression prediction of cabbage mosaic disease was 25, and the average accuracy of 440 tests was 88%.