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近年来,中央提出要积极推进房产税改革。而房产税改革的目标之一就是抑制房价快速上涨势头。这引起了专家学者的广泛热议,房产税也再度成为社会关注的焦点。而由此引发的问题是,征收房产税能真正降低房价波动?两者存在因果关系吗?本文选取美国51个州2005-2014年间的房产税数据来分析房产税率和房价波动之间的关系。结果表明,美国房产税率对房价波动有负面影响,各州房产税率提高0.5%将使房价波动率下降0.5-5.5%,利用工具变量和GMM回归表明两者确实存在因果关系,而且以上结论在不同估算方法下均是稳健的。这表明,房产税可作为其他工具(包括货币工具和宏观审慎监管)的有效补充而用于平抑房价波动。
In recent years, the Central Government has proposed to actively promote the property tax reform. Property tax reform, one of the goals is to curb the rapid rise in house prices momentum. This has aroused widespread hot discussion of experts and scholars, property tax has once again become the focus of attention of the community. And the resulting question is, the real estate tax levy can really reduce the volatility of housing? There is a causal relationship between the two? This selection of 51 states in the United States from 2005 to 2014 real estate tax data to analyze the relationship between real estate tax rates and price fluctuations. The results show that the tax rate of real estate in the United States has a negative impact on house price fluctuations. The increase of 0.5% in property tax rate in every state will cause the price volatility to drop by 0.5-5.5%. The use of instrumental variables and GMM regression shows that there is indeed a causal relationship between the two. Moreover, Methods are robust. This shows that property taxes can be used to calm house price volatility as an effective complement to other instruments, including monetary instruments and macro-prudential regulation.