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可耗竭能源资源是我国经济社会可持续发展和国家安全的重要保障。综合考虑资源储量、技术进步、资源价格、开发成本、市场结构、政策等不确定性因素,以最终产品生产部门和资源供给部门收益最大化以及消费者效用最大化为目标,构建了考虑各部门同时最优的一体化模型,求解出稳态下可耗竭和可再生能源资源价格和产量的增长率,进行了数值模拟和敏感性分析。结果表明:技术进步是影响可耗竭和可再生能源资源价格和产量增长率变化的关键因素;最终产品生产部门规模报酬和跨期替代弹性影响可耗竭和可再生能源资源产量增长率;最终产品生产部门规模报酬不变,则可耗竭和可再生能源资源产量均无增长。据此,提出政策建议为:规范我国可耗竭能源资源价格和开采路径,应突破可耗竭能源资源勘探和开采技术;为实现节能目标,应提高我国最终产品生产部门的规模报酬;未来一段时间内,可耗竭能源资源价格会继续下跌,政府应提前做好战略部署,合理配置能源资源,推进企业转型升级速度。
The depletion of energy resources is an important guarantee for the sustainable development of our economy and society and national security. Taking the uncertainties such as resource reserves, technological progress, resource prices, development costs, market structure and policies into consideration, the goal is to maximize the returns of the final product and resource supply departments and maximize the utility of consumers. At the same time, the optimal integration model is used to solve the problem of depletion of steady state and growth rate of renewable energy resource price and output, and numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis are carried out. The results show that technological progress is the key factor affecting the price and output growth rate of depletable and renewable energy resources; the scale remuneration and intertemporal substitution elasticity of the final product production sector can be depleted and the output growth rate of renewable energy resources; the final product production No change in the scale of the sector, it can be depleted and renewable energy resources yield no growth. Accordingly, the policy recommendations are as follows: To standardize the price and mining path of depletable energy resources in our country, we should break through the technology of exploration and exploitation of exhaustible energy resources; in order to achieve the energy-saving target, we should increase the scale returns of the final product production sector in our country; , Depletable energy resources prices will continue to fall, the government should make strategic arrangements in advance, a reasonable allocation of energy resources, promote enterprise transformation and upgrading speed.