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本文收集了1976年松潘Ms7.2级地震的前兆异常现象(微观方面)约60项,其中包括地震学方法、地形变、水氡、地电阻率、地磁、重力、地应力前兆手段。为了确认其中可信的前兆,本文试图提出一个简便的判别方法,对上述60起异常事件按手段进行了判别,发现仅五分之一的异常事件能取得比较一致的认识,而对大多数的异常现象看法并不一致,很难确认为可信的前兆异常。松潘大震是这样,其他大震或中强震也存在类似的情况。这是运用前兆现象预报地震的困难所在,也反映了地震预报的现状。为了确认可信的前兆,除了深入研究前兆现象的机理外,各手段研究和制订出确认前兆异常的工作规范,也许是提高分析预报水平的途径。bb
This paper collects about 60 precursory anomalies (microscopic aspects) of 1976 Ms7.2 earthquake in Songpan, including seismological methods, topographic changes, water radon, earth resistivity, geomagnetism, gravity and precursory means of earth stress. In order to confirm the credible precursors, this paper attempts to propose a simple discriminant method to discriminate the above-mentioned 60 anomalous events according to the means, and found that only one-fifth of the anomalous events can obtain a more consistent understanding, and for most Abnormal phenomenon is not consistent, it is difficult to confirm as credible precursor anomaly. Songpan earthquake is the case, other large earthquakes or moderate earthquake there is a similar situation. This is the difficulty of using precursors to predict earthquakes and reflects the status of earthquake prediction. In order to confirm credible precursors, in addition to studying the mechanism of precursors in depth, research and development of work practices that identify precursory anomalies by various means may be ways of improving the level of analytical forecasting. bb