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基于VIC水文模型输出的水文要素数据,采用小波分析法及Mann–Kendall非参数检验,分析了东亚夏季风及海河流域各水文要素的周期性变化情况以及两者之间的潜在关系。结果表明:东亚夏季风和海河流域各水文要素在40年周期尺度上具有一致性;此外,近60年来各水文要素均呈下降趋势,其中环太行山–燕山山脉山前区域趋势最明显,并且均与东亚夏季风关系密切,1970年以来东亚夏季风的持续减弱导致流域内持续干旱及水资源短缺。研究还发现东亚夏季风具有显著80年周期变化,并且可能在2040 s为海河流域带来大量降水。因此,对东亚夏季风的研究可以为预测海河流域水资源变化及管理提供重要的科学参考。
Based on the hydrological data output from the VIC hydrological model, the periodic changes of hydrological elements in the East Asian summer monsoon and the Haihe River Basin are analyzed by wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, and the potential relationship between them is analyzed. The results show that the hydrological elements of the East Asian summer monsoon and the Haihe River Basin are consistent on a 40-year periodic scale. In addition, the hydrological elements all show a decreasing trend in the recent 60 years, with the most obvious trend in the anteroposterior area of the Taihang Mountains and the Yanshan Mountains Closely linked with the East Asian summer monsoon, the continuous weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon since 1970 has led to continued drought and water shortages in the basin. The study also found that the East Asian summer monsoon has a remarkable 80-year period variation and may bring about a large amount of precipitation in the Haihe River Basin in 2040s. Therefore, the study of East Asian summer monsoon can provide important scientific reference for forecasting the change and management of water resources in the Haihe River Basin.