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目的探索自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)在狂犬病暴露监测中的应用,为控制狂犬病疫情提供科学依据。方法采用ARIMA模型对珠海市西部地区各级各类医疗机构狂犬病疫苗预防接种点2007-2009年所有狂犬病暴露监测数据进行逐月分析。结果模型ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,1,0)12能很好地拟合珠海市西部地区的狂犬病暴露曲线。根据预测结果,2010年珠海市西部地区狂犬病暴露曲线从5月份开始呈现上升趋势。结论自回归移动平均模型适用于对狂犬病暴露人数的预测,模型参数应随数据量增大而修正。
Objective To explore the application of autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA) in rabies exposure monitoring and provide a scientific basis for controlling the epidemic of rabies. Methods The ARIMA model was used to analyze all the rabies exposure monitoring data from 2007 to 2009 in rabies vaccination points of various medical institutions at all levels in Zhuhai. Results The model ARIMA (0,0,0) (1,1,0) 12 can well fit the rabies exposure curve in the western part of Zhuhai. According to the forecast results, the exposure curve of rabies in the western region of Zhuhai in 2010 showed an upward trend from May. Conclusion The autoregressive moving average model is suitable for predicting the number of rabies exposure. The model parameters should be revised as the data volume increases.