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我国货币增长不确定性的根源可以划分为货币政策冲击和宏观经济冲击两个层面,通过检验我国货币增长不确定性与经济增长之间的关系,结果显示:货币增长不确定性主要由宏观经济冲击所引致;1998年以前的货币增长不确定性比较剧烈,1998之后的货币增长不确定性明显减弱;由货币政策冲击导致的货币增长不确定性能够有效地促进经济增长,这意味着货币政策调控的有效性;但2003年以来,由宏观经济冲击导致的货币增长不确定性对经济增长起到了抑制作用,这说明以国际金融危机为代表的经济冲击对我国经济稳定增长产生了显著的消极影响,需对此进行积极的国家经济风险预警和防范。
The origin of the uncertainty of monetary growth in China can be divided into two aspects: the impact of monetary policy and the macroeconomic impact. By examining the relationship between the uncertainty of monetary growth and economic growth in our country, the result shows that the uncertainty of monetary growth is mainly caused by macroeconomic The uncertainty of monetary growth before 1998 was relatively severe and the uncertainty of monetary growth after 1998 obviously weakened. The uncertainty of monetary growth caused by the impact of monetary policy can effectively promote economic growth, which means that the monetary policy However, since 2003, the uncertainty of monetary growth caused by macroeconomic shock has played an inhibitory role in economic growth. This shows that the economic shock represented by the international financial crisis has had a significant negative impact on the steady growth of China’s economy Influence, need to carry on the positive national economic risk early warning and prevention.