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目的掌握江阴市2006-2015年肺结核流行特征,预测2016-2017年肺结核发病率,为制定防控策略提供科学依据。方法对江阴市2006-2015年肺结核疫情资料进行流行病学分析,应用灰色预测模型对未来两年江阴市肺结核流行趋势进行预测。结果 2006-2015年共报告肺结核发病数6 762例,年均发病率为45.00/10万,男女性别比为2.48∶1,发病年龄以20-40岁组青壮年居多,占发病总数的40.85%,发病职业以农民和民工为主,占58.46%。预测2016-2017年肺结核的发病率为30.78/10万、28.90/10万。结论江阴市肺结核疫情呈下降趋势,但仍应加强青壮年农民民工等重点人群防控工作。
Objective To grasp the epidemiological features of pulmonary tuberculosis in Jiangyin City from 2006 to 2015, forecast the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in 2016-2017, and provide a scientific basis for making prevention and control strategies. Methods Epidemiological analysis of epidemic situation of pulmonary tuberculosis from 2006 to 2015 in Jiangyin City was conducted. The gray prediction model was used to predict the prevalence of tuberculosis in Jiangyin City in the next two years. Results A total of 6 762 pulmonary tuberculosis cases were reported in 2006-2015, with an average annual incidence of 45.00 / 100 000 and a sex ratio of 2.48:1. The age of onset was mostly young and middle-aged adults aged 20-40 years, accounting for 40.85% The main occupational diseases were peasants and migrant workers, accounting for 58.46%. The incidence of tuberculosis in 2016-2017 is forecast to be 30.78 / 100000, 28.90 / 100000. Conclusions The epidemic situation of tuberculosis in Jiangyin City is on the decline. However, prevention and control of migrant workers and other key people should be strengthened.