论文部分内容阅读
人口增长,耕地减少,未来30年我国耕地产粮负荷沉重,按传统计算方法至2030年预计我国化肥需求量约为6800万t,与2000年我国肥料施用量4150万t相比,每年需增加2650万t肥料供应量。国家需增加化肥装置投资1500亿元,每年用于进口化肥需耗费外汇15亿美元,农民购买化肥每年增加1000亿元开支,社会、经济、环境所付代价十分巨大。本文比较了我国与国外高施肥国家的施肥水平,介绍了发达国家化肥施用量正在减少的趋势,提出应增加对“新型肥料研究—开发—产业化—商品化”的投入,力争未来30年,在基本不增加或少增加化肥折纯用量的前提下,保证我国食品的安全供应及经济的可持续发展。
Population growth and the reduction of cultivated land will cause heavy load on cultivated land in China in the next 30 years. According to the traditional calculation method, it is estimated that the demand for chemical fertilizers in China will reach 68 million tons by 2030. Compared with 41.5 million tons of fertilizers in China in 2000, 26.5 million tons of fertilizer supply. Countries need to increase investment in chemical fertilizer plant 150 billion yuan each year for the import of chemical fertilizer consumes 1.5 billion US dollars of foreign exchange, peasants to buy fertilizer each year to increase 100 billion yuan expenditure, social, economic and environmental costs paid are enormous. This paper compares fertilization levels of high fertilization countries in China and abroad, introduces the trend of decreasing fertilizer application rate in developed countries, and puts forward that it is necessary to increase investment in “new fertilizer research-development-industrialization-commercialization” On the premise of basically not increasing or decreasing the amount of purely used chemical fertilizers, China will ensure the safe supply of food and the sustainable economic development.