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基于1978—2008年数据的模型显示:我国财政地方分权有助于城乡二元差距缩小。在1978—1993年的行政分权阶段,财政支农支出不利于城乡居民收入比降低,经济建设支出对缩小农业与非农产业产值和就业结构差异无明显作用;在1994—2008年的经济分权阶段,财政支农支出有利于城乡居民收入比降低,经济建设支出反而加剧农业与非农产业的产值结构和就业结构的失衡,扩大城乡差距。在经济发展阶段推移上,农业劳动力比重变化导致城乡二元差距同向变化,第一产业产值比重变化引导城乡差距反向运动。财政制度安排应该适应经济发展阶段推移和经济体制转变,协调推进农业与非农产业产值结构和就业结构转变,提高财政农业支出的效益,缩小城乡公共服务的差距,促进城乡经济社会统筹发展。
The model based on the data of 1978-2008 shows that the fiscal decentralization of our country helps to narrow the gap between urban and rural areas. During the period of administrative decentralization in 1978-1993, the expenditure of financial support for agriculture is not conducive to lower the income ratio of urban and rural residents, and the expenditure on economic construction has no obvious effect on narrowing the output and employment structure differences between agriculture and non-agricultural industries. In the economic period of 1994-2008 In the right stage, the expenditure of financial support for agriculture is conducive to reducing the income ratio of urban and rural residents, while the expenditure on economic construction aggravates the imbalance between the output value structure and employment structure of agriculture and non-agricultural industries and expands the urban-rural gap. In the stage of economic development, the change in the proportion of agricultural labor force led to the same trend of the urban-rural dual gap. The change of the output value of the primary industry led the reverse movement of urban-rural gap. The arrangement of the financial system should be adapted to the transition of the stage of economic development and the transformation of the economic system, coordinate the promotion of the transformation of the output and employment structure of agriculture and non-agricultural industries, improve the efficiency of financial and agricultural expenditures, narrow the gap between urban and rural public services, and promote the overall economic and social development in urban and rural areas.