基于SPSS的电力需求与行业发展之间的规律研究

• 作 者: 刘家军 姚李孝 苗华 李晓腾
• 机 构: 西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西电力科学研究院,
• 出 处: 现代电力
• 发表日期: 2010年06期
• 关键词: 主成分分析 特征值 回归分析法 用电量 需求模型

对地区全社会用电量进行需求分析,找出全社会总用电量与行业用电量之间的关系。通过SPSS软件用主成分分析法对某地区行业用电量指标进行主成分分析,找出若干个重点行业用电量(若干个个变量)的主成分因子,然后再通过回归分析法对主成分因子和全社会用电量进行回归分析,建立电力需求模型。实例分析证明,这种由少数几个行业用电量来预测全社会总用电量的方法,可得到较好的预测效果。

Conduct a demand analysis on the electricity consumption in the whole region and find out the relationship between the total electricity consumption in the whole society and the electricity consumption in the industry. Through principal component analysis (PCA) of principal component analysis (PCA), the principal components of industry electricity consumption in a certain region were analyzed by principal component analysis (PCA) to find out the principal component factors of electricity consumption (several variables) in several key industries. Then, Factors and the total social electricity consumption regression analysis, the establishment of electricity demand model. The case study proves that this method of predicting the total electricity consumption of the whole society by the electricity consumption of a few industries can get a better prediction result.