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自2006年底起,中国出现了新一轮的价格总水平上升。本轮价格总水平上升是在中国经济高速增长、结构转变加快和对全球化深化的背景下发生的,影响价格总水平的因素空前复杂多样。本轮价格总水平上升表现出了一些突出的特征,如价格上涨具有结构性、CPI与PPI的关系发生逆转、与国际价格关联度高和有流动性过剩相伴随。通过对特征事实的追踪分析得出结论,新一轮价格总水平上升来自于中国经济结构转变、全球化深化和美国货币政策这几项初始冲击。这几项初始冲击提高了中国和世界的经济增长,特别是资源能源消耗较大的重工业的增长,从而带动能源原材料价格上涨。而能源原材料价格上涨又提高了各下游产业中间投入成本,遭受相对成本冲击较严重和生产率增长较慢的农业等部门价格首先出现了上涨,并进而带动价格总水平上升。
Since the end of 2006, China has witnessed a new general price increase. The overall price level rise in this round took place under the background of China’s rapid economic growth, structural changes accelerated and deepening of globalization. The factors affecting the overall price level are unprecedented and diverse. The current round of price increases showed some salient features. For example, the price rise was structural, the relationship between CPI and PPI reversed, the high correlation with international prices and the excess liquidity accompanied. Through the follow-up analysis of the characteristics of the facts concluded that the new round of price increases come from China’s economic restructuring, deepening of globalization and the United States monetary policy these initial impact. These initial shocks have boosted the economic growth in China and the world, especially in the heavy industry, where the consumption of energy and resources is high, so as to drive up the prices of energy and raw materials. In addition, the price of energy and raw materials increased the intermediate input costs of various downstream industries, the prices of agricultural sectors suffering more severe relative cost shocks and slower growth of productivity rose first, which in turn led to an increase in the general price level.