税收与经济增长:来自中国省级面板数据的证据

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本文利用面板数据对我国税收与经济增长的关系进行了估计。研究发现,增值税、个人所得税在一定程度上可以通过度量不同省、市、自治区的税收和经济容量,反映出经济规模的大小,进而与GDP有显著的正相关的关系,而其他税收与GDP有显著的负相关关系。但是从长期来看,各种税收对GDP增长率并无显著影响,财政政策并不会显著影响经济增长率。 In this paper, panel data is used to estimate the relationship between tax revenue and economic growth in China. The study finds that, to a certain extent, value-added tax and personal income tax can reflect the size of the economy, and then have a significant positive correlation with GDP by measuring the tax revenue and economic capacity of different provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. However, other taxes and GDP There is a significant negative correlation. However, in the long run, various taxes have no significant effect on the growth rate of GDP, and fiscal policy will not significantly affect the rate of economic growth.
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