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本文通过美国近40年季度经济收缩期投资动力的实证,分析了投资对美国季度经济增长的重要作用,重点分析了住宅投资对季度经济增长的影响。在住宅投资变动及与其他投资动力因素之间迟滞关系的实证基础上,提出了预测季度经济收缩期的先期判断依据。初步推断2007年美国宏观当局如无有力措施出台,很可能出现季度性经济收缩。
This paper analyzes the important role of investment in quarterly economic growth in the United States through the empirical evidence of quarterly economic contraction in the United States over the past 40 years and analyzes the impact of residential investment on quarterly economic growth. Based on the empirical evidence of the change of residential investment and the lagging relationship with other investment motivation factors, the paper puts forward the preliminary judgment basis for predicting the quarterly economic contraction period. It is preliminarily concluded that in the absence of any vigorous measures by the U.S. macro authorities in 2007, the quarterly economic contraction is likely to occur.