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本文在分析中国及世界羊肉生产与贸易状况的基础上,利用生产成本、出口价格以及相关国际竞争力指数对我国羊肉的国际竞争力进行了评价,并结合中新FTA签订生效,运用引力模型与Heckman两阶段模型对我国羊肉出口的影响因素展开实证分析。结果显示:中国羊肉国际竞争力整体水平不高,且国内市场处于供求紧平衡状态;与出口对象国(地区)距离、中国羊肉产量与汇率是影响我国羊肉出口的主要因素;中国与新西兰自由贸易协议抑制了中国羊肉出口。最后,从立足国内生产、引进国际资源、加强农牧产品质量监管、发展周边国家贸易以及借助自由贸易发展推动产业升级提出了相应对策建议。
Based on the analysis of the status of mutton production and trade in China and the rest of the world, this paper evaluates the international competitiveness of China’s mutton using the production costs, export prices and relevant international competitiveness indices. In addition, Heckman two-stage model on the impact of China’s export of mutton empirical analysis. The results show that the overall international competitiveness of China’s mutton is not high, and the domestic market is in a state of tight supply and demand balance. The distance from the target country (region), the output of mutton in China and the exchange rate are the major factors affecting the export of mutton in China. The free trade between China and New Zealand Agreement to curb the Chinese lamb exports. Finally, we put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions based on the domestic production, the introduction of international resources, the supervision of the quality of agricultural and animal husbandry products, the development of trade in neighboring countries and the promotion of industrial upgrading through the development of free trade.