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本文对清华大学两届量化历史讲习班中有关大分流的讨论进行了梳理,认为相对价格的变化是大分流的根本启动因素,相对价格和结构变迁之间具有双向反馈机制。同时,相对价格的变化也会引起有偏技术进步。与相对价格体系和有偏技术相适应的制度选择,会降低制度费用而促进长期经济增长。从资本积累式的斯密型增长过渡到熊彼特式的创造性破坏,是不可逾越的历史发展过程。
This paper reviews the discussion of Dianliu flow in the two quantitative history seminars held by Tsinghua University, and thinks that the change of relative price is the fundamental starting point of Dianliufen and there is a two-way feedback mechanism between relative price and structural change. At the same time, the relative price changes can also lead to biased technological progress. Institutional choices that are compatible with relative price systems and biased technologies will reduce institutional costs and promote long-term economic growth. The transition from capitalistic Smithian growth to Schumpeterian creative destruction is an insurmountable process of historical development.