论文部分内容阅读
气候变化是自1990年来全球的环境难题,增加森林碳汇和木质林产品碳储是缓解温室效应的有效途径。林业碳库总系统包含森林碳库和木质林产品碳库两个子系统。本研究结合蓄积量法、单指数衰减模型、生物量消耗法及储量变化法,对1993-2013年的中国林业碳库各子系统进行核算分析,并运用灰色动态系统GM(1,1)模型预测2014-2033年中国林业碳库的发展趋势。研究结果表明:11993-2013年中国森林碳库呈现稳定上升趋势,2013年中国森林碳汇为175亿t,比1993年森林碳汇提高了约50%,采伐剩余物累计碳排放和森林火灾碳排放分别为1082万t和8 866万t,抵消了森林碳库水平的0.56%;2中国过去20年木质林产品碳库增长迅速,2013年木质林产品总碳储量和新增碳储量分别为9.0亿t和0.5亿t,比1993年分别增加了1.21倍和3.22倍;32013年中国林业碳库碳储量为184.8亿t,未来中国林业碳库的发展态势预测结果显示,2014-2033年中国林业碳库碳储量将呈稳定上升趋势,2033年中国林业碳库碳储量将达到278.43亿t,是1993年林业碳库水平的2.05倍。
Climate change is a global environmental problem since 1990. Increasing forest carbon sinks and carbon stocks in woody products are effective ways to mitigate the greenhouse effect. The total forest carbon inventory system includes two sub-systems, the forest carbon pool and the wood-based forest carbon pool. In this study, we calculated and analyzed the subsystems of China’s forestry carbon stock from 1993 to 2013 with the methods of stock volume, single exponential decay, biomass consumption and stock change, and applied the Gray Dynamic Model GM (1,1) Predict the development trend of China’s forestry carbon pool from 2014 to 2033. The results show that the forest carbon stocks in China show a steady upward trend from 11993 to 2013. In 2013, the forest carbon sequestration in China was 17.5 billion tons, about 50% more than the forest carbon sequestration in 1993. The cumulative carbon emissions from logging residues and forest fire carbon Emissions of 10.82 million tons and 86.66 million tons respectively, offsetting 0.56% of the forest carbon pool. 2 China’s carbon stocks of wood-based forest products have been growing rapidly in the past 20 years. The total carbon storage and newly-added carbon stocks of woody products in 2013 were 9.0 billion t and 0.5 billion t respectively, an increase of 1.21 times and 3.22 times respectively over that of 1993; the carbon storage of China’s forestry carbon stocks was 184.8 billion tons in 32013; the forecast of the development trend of China’s forestry carbon stocks in the future shows that from 2014 to 2033, China The carbon stocks of forestry carbon stocks will show a steady upward trend. By 2033, the carbon stocks of China’s forestry carbon stocks will reach 27.843 billion tons, 2.05 times of the 1993 levels of forest carbon stocks.