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2016年世界经济增长疲软态势难有根本好转,全球贸易增速仍将处于较低水平。美联储逐步加息会持续加大部分新兴经济体资本外流压力,国际金融市场更加动荡。在需求疲弱、供过于求基本格局下,国际大宗商品价格仍将在低位震荡。目前看,世界经济仍处在金融危机后的深度调整期,低速增长还会持续数年。我国稳增长面临的环境依然复杂严峻,资本外流压力加大,宏观经济调控和结构性改革政策组合在稳增长和防风险之间寻求平衡的难度加大,国际社会对中国宏观政策溢出效应更加敏感。为此,应优化宏观调控和结构性改革的政策组合,稳定市场信心,引导形成良好预期。与此同时,加快人民币汇率形成机制改革,稳定外资流入,以“一带一路”建设为依托构建国际经贸合作新格局。
The weak global economic growth in 2016 will not be fundamentally improved, and the global trade growth will remain at a relatively low level. The gradual rate hike by the Federal Reserve will continue to increase the pressure on capital outflows in some emerging economies and the international financial markets will be more turmoil. Under the basic pattern of weak demand and oversupply, international commodity prices will remain volatile at low levels. At present, the world economy is still in a period of deep adjustment after the financial crisis, and its slow growth will continue for several years. The environment for steady growth in our country is still complicated and severe. With intensified pressure on capital outflow, it is more and more difficult to strike a balance between macroeconomic regulation and structural reform in the policy portfolio in stabilizing growth and preventing risks. The international community is even more sensitive to the spillover effect of China’s macroeconomic policies . To this end, the policy mix of macro-control and structural reform should be optimized to stabilize market confidence and guide the formation of good expectations. At the same time, we will speed up the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and stabilize the inflow of foreign capital, building a new pattern of international economic and trade cooperation based on the “Belt and Road” construction.