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为实现对目标水域水上交通系统宏观状态和演变趋势的定量描述和分析,深入理解和掌握水上交通系统内在因子的相互作用,根据水上交通系统宏观态势的本征特性,构建水上交通宏观态势评估模型.首先,根据宏观态势特点,分析宏观态势评估指标,构建融合动态密度因子和迫近因子的宏观态势评估模型和区域分布模型.然后,将水域网格化,分析各网格的态势变化,将态势在时间维度拓展,建立水上交通宏观态势预测模型.以深圳港区西部港区为例,以区域AIS信息作为态势感知数据进行水上交通系统宏观态势评估和可视化分析,并将水上交通态势与所选指标因子进行相关性检验分析.结果表明,水上交通宏观态势与所选的指标因子之间具有较好的相关性.该模型可较好地反映该水域宏观交通状态和趋势,可为水上交通系统状态分析和系统安全性研究提供一种度量工具.
In order to realize the quantitative description and analysis of the macroeconomic status and evolution trend of the water transit system in the target waters, to understand and master the interaction of the internal factors of the water transport system, according to the intrinsic characteristics of the macroeconomic situation of the water transport system, First of all, according to the characteristics of the macroeconomic situation, the macroeconometric assessment index is analyzed to construct the macroeconomic situation assessment model and the regional distribution model which integrate the dynamic density factor and the proximity factor.After that, the watersheds are gridded to analyze the situation changes of each grid, And expand the time dimension to establish the macroeconomic situation forecasting model of water transport.West port area of Shenzhen Port is taken as an example to take the regional AIS information as the situational awareness data to assess and visualize the macroeconomic situation of the maritime traffic system, The results show that there is a good correlation between the macroeconomic situation of water transport and the selected index factors.The model can better reflect the macro traffic conditions and trends in the water and can be used for water transport system Status analysis and system security research provide a measurement tool.