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每当一次严重破坏性地震发生后,关于其能否被预测一直是备受争议的话题.本文基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,分析了能被预测的地震类型,指出:(1)在特定地震区地震目录完整且准确的情况下,除第1锁固段在体积膨胀点发生的标志性地震不能被预测外,后续标志性地震均能被预测;(2)利用次级锁固段破裂在“时间域”或“空间域”的自相似模式,可预测某些标志性预震.本文的研究结果表明,特定地震区内某些标志性地震与标志性预震,因其发生的物理机制明确且有规律可循,故能被预测;这些可预测地震仅与锁固段破裂对应的地震事件类型有关,而与其地震震级无关.
It is always a controversial topic whether or not it can be predicted after a serious and devastating earthquake.According to the brittle fracture theory of the multi-locked section of the seismogenic fault, this paper analyzes the types of earthquakes that can be predicted, and points out that: (1 ) In the case of a complete and accurate earthquake catalog in a particular seismic zone, subsequent landmark seismic events can be predicted except for the landmark earthquake that occurs at the volume expansion point of the first locking segment; (2) The self-similar model of the fractures in the “time domain” or “space domain” can predict some of the landmark pre-shocks.The results of this paper show that some of the landmark earthquakes and the landmark Earthquakes can be predicted because of their clear and regular physical mechanisms. These predictable earthquakes are only related to the types of seismic events corresponding to the fracture of the locked section, but not to the earthquake magnitude.