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随着医疗服务市场竞争的日趋激烈,加强医院内涵建设,缩短平均住院日已成为医院管理的首要目标。因此,对如何缩短平均住院日的分析与研究日渐增多。本文从医院经济与社会综合效益的角度出发,根据医院住院病人来源多、床位长期超负荷运作、且短期内不可能扩容的现状,运用统计预测方法,以某医院外科某科室为研究样本,预测各季度出院人数的95％可信区间,然后根据实际展开床位数及床位使用率限值计算出乎均住院日的控制值范围。试图以此目标
With the increasingly fierce competition in the medical service market, strengthening hospital connotation construction and shortening the average length of hospital stay has become the primary goal of hospital management. Therefore, the number of analyses and researches on how to shorten the average length of stay is increasing. From the perspective of the comprehensive economic and social benefits of the hospital, this article uses a statistical forecasting method based on the fact that there are many inpatients in hospitals, long-term overloaded operation of beds, and it is impossible to expand capacity in the short term. The 95% confidence interval for the number of discharged patients in each quarter, and then based on the actual number of beds and the bed occupancy rate limit, the control value range of the average hospital stay was calculated. Trying to use this goal