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在经济全球化趋势日益显著的今天,国际国内经济环境日趋严峻复杂。目前,全球性通货膨胀与经济衰退、全球性金融危机、国内通货膨胀压力、中小企业处境艰难、股市暴跌等“内忧外患”让以外向型经济为主导的中国经济“腹背受敌”。在2008年初,温家宝总理谈到中国经济形势时就曾经说过,“08年恐怕是经济上最为困难的一年”。在这种困难的经济处境下,对经济形势及发展的判断和预期不止要依靠客观经济指标,主观经济指标的重要性愈益突出。本文提出的居民经济情绪指数就是一个以量化的形式反映居民对当前及未来经济景气状况的心理感受程度的主观经济指标。对居民经济情绪指数进行实证研究具有双重意义。一是用量化的指标(即居民经济情绪指数)来反映居民经济情绪这一主观内容,量化的指标更易进行比较研究。二是为人们理解经济、进行经济活动提供参考依据。先期指标的获得,有利于决策者和学者们进行先期判断,也利于先期化解危机与风险。
At a time when the trend of economic globalization is becoming increasingly prominent, the international and domestic economic environment have become more and more complicated. At present, the global inflation and recession, the global financial crisis, the pressure of domestic inflation, the difficult situation of small and medium-sized enterprises and the plummeting stock market have made the Chinese economy dominated by an outward-oriented economy “infuriating”. At the beginning of 2008, Premier Wen Jiabao once said when talking about China's economic situation: “2008 is probably the most economically difficult year.” In this difficult economic situation, judging and anticipating the economic situation and development depends not only on objective economic indicators, but on the importance of subjective economic indicators. The index of residents 'economic sentiment presented in this paper is a subjective economic indicator that quantifies residents' psychological feelings about current and future economic conditions. Empirical research on residents' economic sentiment index has dual significance. First, using quantitative indicators (ie, residents 'economic sentiment index) to reflect the subjective content of residents' economic sentiment, quantitative indicators are more likely to be compared and studied. The second is to provide a reference for people to understand the economy and carry out economic activities. The acquisition of the advanced indicators is conducive to decision makers and scholars to make advance judgments, but also conducive to early resolution of the crisis and risk.