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近年来,在殷墟甲骨分期的研究中,对于同一期甲骨的认识、见解,往往大相径庭,出现严重分歧。有的研究者花了很大心力,写出了数万字、十几万字的研究论文,让人不敢不认真研读。但是,有的论文,即便在反复认真拜读后,仍然让人不得不遗憾地言曰:“不敢苟同。”这一分歧的长期不得解决,不仅使甲骨学之外的学者在使用殷墟卜辞资料时难以抉择(或者按错误观点使用这些资料,以讹传讹),而且也使甲骨学的研究陷入混乱。研史者皆知,一旦分期断代出现错误,任何进一步的研究,都将误入歧途,成为南辕北辙。故而,分期断代研究是治史者之先务,且应力求其结论正确可靠。治史中,分期断代出现更大分歧,有时是由于所掌握的史料不够充足,史家只能得出拟测性的结论,因而难免出现众说纷纭;有时则是所掌握的史料已够充足,由于研究的功夫不够、认识的不够深透,未能洞悉其内在联系,不能实现正确的分期断代;有时则是由于研究者所运用的方法不同,据以断代的标准不同,因而所得出的结论也出现分
In recent years, in the study of the oracle bones in the Yin Ruins, the same period of oracle bone knowledge, opinions, are often very different, serious divisions. Some researchers spent a lot of effort, wrote tens of thousands of words, hundreds of thousands of words of research papers, people dare not not serious study. However, some essays, even after repeated serious reading, still make people regret to say: “I do not agree.” This long-standing disagreement can not be resolved. It is not only that scholars other than ossicular are using data from the Yin Ruins When it is difficult to choose (or according to the wrong point of view the use of these materials, to correct the erroneous assert), but also to study the oracle into chaos. It is well-known in the history of the researcher that any further research, once staged an error, will go astray and become totally different. Therefore, it is the forerunner of the historians to make the study of staging by stages, and the conclusion of the study should be correct and reliable. In the history of the government, there are still more divergences in the staging of the installments. Sometimes it is because the historical materials available are not sufficient and the historians can only draw the conclusions that are intended to be tested. Therefore, there are inevitably many controversies; at other times, the available historical materials are sufficient. Not enough understanding of the depth of understanding is not insight into its internal relations, can not achieve the correct staging dating; sometimes because of the different methods used by researchers, according to the different standards, and the conclusions reached points