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本文基于天津市基本医疗保险的现行政策,对未来20年内的基金收支平衡状况进行了模拟测算,发现基金的长期平衡存在风险,并且这种风险的大小受到工资增长率的影响。在人口老龄化过程中,城镇职工基本医疗保险以工资为基础的缴费机制以及城乡居民基本医疗保险的定额缴费机制都缺乏应对长期风险的能力。本文针对这一问题,提出了建立基本医疗保险基金缴费增长机制的几点政策建议。
Based on the current policy of basic medical insurance in Tianjin, this paper simulates the fund balance in the next 20 years and finds that the long-term balance of the fund is risky, and the size of this risk is affected by the wage growth rate. In the process of population aging, wage-based payment mechanisms for basic medical insurance for urban workers and urban residents as well as the fixed contribution mechanism for urban and rural residents’ basic medical insurance lack the ability to cope with long-term risks. In response to this problem, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to establish the mechanism of increasing the contribution of basic medical insurance funds.