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1引言厄尔尼诺现象是大尺度海气相互作用过程而引起的异常变化．由于伴随着厄尔尼诺的发生往往出现全球范围的气候异常，因此厄尔尼诺的诊断和预测引起了海洋学家和气象学家的密切注意．为了建立和改善厄尔尼诺的预报模式，寻求可供厄尔尼诺预报使用的预报因子和诊断厄尔尼诺发
1 INTRODUCTION The El Niño phenomenon is an anomalous change caused by large-scale air-sea interaction. The diagnosis and prediction of El Niño have drawn the close attention of oceanographers and meteorologists due to the global climate anomalies that accompany the El Niño. In order to establish and improve the El Niño forecasting model, search for predictors for El Niño forecasting and diagnosis of El Niño