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目的分析福建省2004—2015年淋病疫情流行病学特征及未来趋势,为制定防治策略提供科学依据。方法对2004—2015年福建省淋病病例报告资料进行统计分析,应用灰色系统GM(1,1)建立淋病发病率预测模型。结果淋病报告发病率从2004年的21.92/10万下降为2015年的13.88/10万,呈下降趋势(χ~2=692.485,P<0.01)。发病率以25~29岁年龄组为最高。报告病例较多的地区为经济较发达的泉州、厦门和福州市。男性报告病例数明显超过女性,男女性别比在逐年增大。预测福建省2016—2018年淋病发病率仍然呈下降趋势。结论福建省淋病发病率虽然呈下降趋势,但各种感染危险因素依然存在,需要根据淋病的流行特点采取有效的措施控制淋病的传播与蔓延。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and future trends of gonorrhea epidemics in Fujian Province from 2004 to 2015 and provide a scientific basis for making prevention and cure strategies. Methods The data of gonorrhea cases in Fujian Province from 2004 to 2015 were analyzed statistically. The gray system GM (1,1) was used to establish the prediction model of gonorrhea incidence. Results The incidence of gonorrhea reported decreased from 21.92 / 100 000 in 2004 to 13.88 / 100 000 in 2015, showing a downward trend (χ ~ 2 = 692.485, P <0.01). The incidence of 25 to 29 age group was the highest. The regions with more reported cases are Quanzhou, Xiamen and Fuzhou which are more economically developed. The number of men reported significantly more than women, male and female sex ratio increased year by year. It is predicted that the incidence of gonorrhea in Fujian Province will continue to decline from 2016 to 2018. Conclusions Although the incidence of gonorrhea in Fujian Province has been declining, various risk factors of infection still exist. Therefore, effective measures should be taken to control the spread and spread of gonorrhea according to the epidemic characteristics of gonorrhea.