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2012年7月中旬日本熊本县迎来特大暴雨,暴雨在熊本县市区内引发洪水,并在位于其东北部的阿苏地区引发了数量巨大、后果严重的地质灾害。通过同年10月到11月之间多次现场灾害调查,发现当地的地质灾害主要类型有崩塌、滑坡和泥石流。当地的地理环境给相关部门后续的治理和修复工作带来了极大的不便利,同时耗费了大量的时间和资金,因而相对于灾后进行治理和修复工作,事前对于当地可能发生地质灾害的区域进行危险度评价,在危险度大的地方提前建立防护措施具有更大的实际和经济价值。本文运用日本熊本大学工学部环境岩土研究室自主研发的危险度评价RESS软件对选取的阿苏—坂梨区域进行危险度评价,获得了被研究区域的地势起伏度、横断面形状、斜面倾斜角度、集水面积、土地利用信息、土体表层地质、灾害场所变化情况等7个类别的解析图像和数据。结合使用数量化—Ⅱ类分析方法,对危险度评价的结果进行验证和扩展,危险度评价的准确率和灾害场所的判断准确率均高于研究要求,另外也获得了由RESS软件解析出来的各个类别的因子对于地质灾害事件的贡献度大小。依据危险度评价的结果绘制出被研究区域的地质灾害预测预警地图,该地图简单易懂,具有一定的社会共享意义和专业参考价值。
In mid-July 2012, Kumamoto Prefecture in Japan ushered in an extremely heavy rainstorm, which caused flooding in the urban area of Kumamoto Prefecture and caused a huge amount of geological disasters that caused serious consequences in the Aso area in the northeastern part of the country. Through a series of on-site disaster surveys between October and November of the same year, it was found that the main types of local geological disasters are landslides and landslides. The local geography environment has brought great inconvenience to the follow-up management and restoration work of the relevant departments. At the same time, it takes a great deal of time and money. Therefore, compared with the post-disaster treatment and restoration work, the local geological disasters may occur in advance It is more practical and economic to conduct risk assessment and establish protective measures ahead of time in places of great danger. In this paper, RASS software was used to evaluate the degree of risk of the selected Aso-Sakamoto region by using the research and development of the risk assessment of environmental geotechnical research laboratory of Kumamoto University. The undulation, cross-sectional shape, slope angle, Catchment area, land use information, soil topography, changes in disaster sites and other seven categories of analytical images and data. Combined with the quantitative-Ⅱ analysis method, the results of risk assessment were verified and extended, the accuracy of risk assessment and the judgment accuracy of disaster sites were higher than the research requirements, and also obtained from RESS software The contribution of each category of factors to geological disasters. According to the results of the risk assessment, the map of geological disaster prediction and early warning for the area under study is drawn. The map is easy to understand and has certain social sharing significance and professional reference value.