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本文抓住中国转型时期私营经济的高效和金融受限两大特点进行建模,推导出流动性过剩函数。在相对风险厌恶不变的效用函数假设下,利用欧拉公式解出均衡利率的随机表达式。通过模型校准、数值模拟以及中美数据对比分析,论证了中国利率市场化的必要性。通过中国经济发展的“特惠模式”观点,解释了利用模型所得利率数据高于现实利率以及两者相关系数为负的原因,进一步论证了模型的可信性,为政府的宏观调控提供了理论支撑。通过分析,我们还得出一些重要结论。
This article seizes the two characteristics of the private economy highly efficient and financially constrained during the transitional period in China to model and derive the excess liquidity function. Under the assumption of the utility function with relative risk aversion, the stochastic expression of the equilibrium interest rate is solved by the Euler formula. Through model calibration, numerical simulation and comparative analysis of Sino-US data, the necessity of marketization of interest rate in China is demonstrated. Through the view of “ex-gratia model” of China’s economic development, this paper explains why the interest rate data obtained from the model is higher than the real interest rate and the negative correlation coefficient between the two models further demonstrates the credibility of the model and provides the macro-control for the government Theoretical support. Through analysis, we also come to some important conclusions.